Economics bulletin 10 March

Date : 09 March 2023
Your overview of economic and policy news with a focus on the food and consumer goods industry. Featuring the latest developments and guidance on the rising cost of living, disruptions to supply chains, the Ukraine crisis, labour shortages, policy developments and adapting to a new relationship with the EU.

Shoppers increasingly divided

IGD ShopperVista insight has revealed that financial confidence is improving. However, this masks differences by income group. 20% of higher income shoppers believe they will be better off in the year ahead, up 5% compared to January’23. In contrast, 54% of lower income shoppers believe they will be worse off, up 7%.

Join us for our Viewpoint webinar on 20 April to hear our views on the economy, consumer sentiment and policy development.

GDP falls in January

UK economic activity rose in January 2023 by 0.3%, following a sharp fall in December 2022. The primary contributors to the rise were the services sector (including education, arts and entertainment) and consumer facing services (including sports and food and beverage services). However, wholesale and retail trade declined.

Concerningly, there was a sharp fall in the construction sector of 1.7% indicating the economy may be weaker than headline figures suggest. GDP is estimated to have been flat for the period November 2022 – January 2023.

The Chancellor will announce the Spring Budget on Wednesday 15 March. We will provide a full analysis of the budget on the IGD Economics website to help you understand what this means for the food and consumer goods industry.

The Windsor Framework

In last week’s bulletin, we took an in-depth look at The Windsor Framework. IGD’s Viewpoint is that the proposed deal safeguards the interests of shoppers in Northern Ireland and should assist grocery businesses looking to send goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.

View this short video from our Chief Economist, James Walton. In the video James provides a summary of the proposed deal and outlines our viewpoint.

See also this Windsor Framework – sector explainer.

Shortage Occupation List

The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has published a call for evidence as part of its review of the Shortage Occupation List.

The MAC is interested in hearing organisations’ views on the roles filled by migrant workers, their salaries, and the consequences of any changes.

The call for evidence can be accessed here.

Energy Markets

OFGEM has launched a call for input for organisations to give their views on the non-domestic gas and electricity markets. To respond to the call for input, click here.

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